Swine Flu

[Zouji]

So if there have been around 30,000 cases with only around 50+ people dead then that means you have around a 0.1%-0.2% chance of dieing. Notice it is not 2% but 0.2%. Reminds me of the South Park episode about the Bird Flu where you had a 0.1% chance of dieing if you got it.

The Regular Flu + Pneumonia has a much greater chance of killing you.

Pneumonia and Influenza (P&I) Mortality Surveillance*:

During the 2007--08 influenza season, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) exceeded the epidemic threshold†† for 8 consecutive weeks in the 122 Cities Mortality Reporting System during the weeks ending January 12--May 17, 2008 (weeks 9--16). The percentage of P&I deaths peaked at 9.1% during the week ending March 15, 2008 (week 11). During the previous three influenza seasons, the peak percentage of P&I deaths has ranged from 7.7% to 8.9% and the total number of weeks the P&I ratio exceeded the epidemic threshold has ranged from one to 11. The P&I baseline and epidemic threshold values are projected for each season at the onset of that season and are based on data from the previous five years. The robust regression model used to calculate the 122 Cities Mortality Reporting System baseline and epidemic threshold values was recently modified. This new methodology better takes into account shifts in the long term trends of the 122 Cities data, and will be used in the upcoming 2008-09 influenza season to project the baseline and epidemic threshold values.

Source CDC 07-08 Flu Summary
<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2007-2008/07-08summary.htm">http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarc ... ummary.htm</a><!-- m -->