Skating to where the puck is going

[strife]

I think the electric revolution will happen a lot quicker than you think, at least in the luxury market.

That wouldn't entirely surprise me; I just think that Tesla is going to be the DeLorean of the electric car market. If the concept ever really starts to take off, Toyota, Ford, Lexus, etc, will come in and crush them.

Unless they have some really interesting patent, I guess. But I also don't think you're going to get an entire industry to shift if it's being bolted to the ground by some fundamental patents that prevent competition.

Are Tesla's charging stations Tesla only? If so that is going to hinder them IMO. There needs to be a standard and all of the electric car companies use that standard if electric cars and charging are ever going to become anything more than a fad IMO.

[Zirak]

I'll be sold on Tesla as a car manufacturer after Jeremy Clarkson reviews it... until then... meh.

Clarkson did review the Tesla a couple of years ago on Top Gear - he did not like it. In fact, Tesla sued him for libel over his review - a suit they lost.

[strife]

I'll be sold on Tesla as a car manufacturer after Jeremy Clarkson reviews it... until then... meh.

Clarkson did review the Tesla a couple of years ago on Top Gear - he did not like it. In fact, Tesla sued him for libel over his review - a suit they lost.

Yea I was referring to this one. Everyone knows the old Tesla's are shit

[Jakensama]

In fact, Tesla sued him for libel over his review - a suit they lost.

Who hasn't sued Clarkson in the UK though?

Their journey through the south of the US when they decorated each others cars is hilarious. I have zero interest in cars but I love that show.

[Grieve]

Yeah, I have little interest in cars, but I watched Top Gear when I lived in England just for Clarkson, complete dick though he can be. Can't believe he's still going.

Nice to get some backup from Breand on Tesla! I'm actually out of the stock right now - I read too many bearish articles and was stupid enough to listen to them. However...I think most of them (like the one Strife linked) are making the same arguments everyone (including me) make about Amazon. They are making no profit now, and people are paying a crazy PE for future profits that might never happen. Clearly that argument hasn't worked with Amazon, and I think it's even less true of Tesla.

Let's face it, Elon Musk, even moreso than Jeff Bezos, is the type of Jobs-esque genius that can just make shit happen. Everything he's tried has turned to gold so far. Sometimes you have to invest in people even more than the company itself. Tesla is a great company and make an incredible car, but if you buy the stock you are investing in what you think Musk can achieve. It's not about the Model S, despite the fact it's winning award after award and getting the highest rating of any car ever made. It's about the cars they are going to be bringing out next - the SUV, the mid-range, and what knows what after that. He's proved he's a lot more than a one-hit wonder, so there's no reason those cars won't blow the roof off as well.

Right now I'm desperately hoping for a big pullback I can get back in, but like Apple, Tesla keeps going up on days the market goes down.

[Breand]

I say everything I did but I wouldn't touch the stock with a ten foot pole. I think it's possible Tesla doesn't survive, but they have shown how much of a desire there is out there for a luxury electric car and has opened the eyes of the other manufacturers.

[Slamz]

Are Tesla's charging stations Tesla only? If so that is going to hinder them IMO. There needs to be a standard and all of the electric car companies use that standard if electric cars and charging are ever going to become anything more than a fad IMO.

That's my guess -- at least that battery swapping idea they have, which requires a purpose-built bay. I would be terribly surprised to see them say, "Hey, Toyota, Ford, go ahead and use this technology in your cars too!"

But ultimately that's probably going to be a requirement to really get electric cars on the road in numbers -- some common technology for either fast charging or battery swapping.

Nice to get some backup from Breand on Tesla! I'm actually out of the stock right now - I read too many bearish articles and was stupid enough to listen to them. However...I think most of them (like the one Strife linked) are making the same arguments everyone (including me) make about Amazon. They are making no profit now, and people are paying a crazy PE for future profits that might never happen. Clearly that argument hasn't worked with Amazon, and I think it's even less true of Tesla.

It all comes down to how you see the future of the company, I think. Amazon is doing good stuff and they're the champion of their field.

Tesla is doing something interesting but they are a small player in the field of "automobiles". Walmart can't move over and crush Amazon but Toyota could move over and crush Tesla.

Same way I feel about Netflix, incidentally. Nobody is in any position to roll over on them and their business model. They're the kings of what they do. When I look at Tesla, I see a small fish in a shark tank.

They might eventually get bought up but they also might just get crushed.

I have a hard time envisioning a future 10 years from now where Tesla is a major car company. I can see Amazon and Netflix but in 10 years I suspect Tesla will be gone or owned by BMW.

[Vanraw]

I would be terribly surprised to see them say, "Hey, Toyota, Ford, go ahead and use this technology in your cars too!"

Actually I think that would be their intent. If I was Tesla. I doubt they want to be in the "fueling" station business. Their biggest hang up is that every place there is a gas station, there isnt a way to fill up their car with energy. The only way that nut is cracked is if everyone uses the same standard for filling up which would motivate recharging stations.

Either way the time it takes to charge is still a major issue. Hell 10 minutes is too long.

[strife]

Either way the time it takes to charge is still a major issue. Hell 10 minutes is too long.

Yea, 5 minutes is about the max IMO for something like that...

The whole swap out your entire battery at a changing station sounds great... It works, it's fast... but how fucking expensive is it. Are you just renting your battery? Do you have to sign a contract that tracks which battery you have and which battery you swapped for a new one? How much are the batteries? Who buys them? The filling station? So the filling station would have to have 100's of these huge ass batteries ready to be installed in cars.

That would fix the issue with the batteries going to shit though if every time you went to the filling station you just replaced the battery for a different one. Then the filling stations would be responsible for keeping only the good batteries on supply and trashing/returning the ones that can't hold a charge anymore.

[Slamz]

I think Tesla is in a catch-22 situation. If they give up some of their patented ideas, then electric cars can take off, which is to say, Toyota, BMW and Lexus will implement a better version of their technology and crush them with it.

If they keep their patents then they can keep their competitive edge against the big dogs but electric cars, at least with Tesla technology, will have a really hard time spreading. Nobody is going to build quick battery swap stations that's only useful for 1 car manufacturer.


There needs to be an industry standard that all car companies agree on for ideas like quick charging stations. But then it's a level playing field and I'd be real surprised to see Tesla beat out these other companies.

[Breand]

Either way the time it takes to charge is still a major issue. Hell 10 minutes is too long.

Yea, 5 minutes is about the max IMO for something like that...

The whole swap out your entire battery at a changing station sounds great... It works, it's fast... but how fucking expensive is it. Are you just renting your battery? Do you have to sign a contract that tracks which battery you have and which battery you swapped for a new one? How much are the batteries? Who buys them? The filling station? So the filling station would have to have 100's of these huge ass batteries ready to be installed in cars.

That would fix the issue with the batteries going to shit though if every time you went to the filling station you just replaced the battery for a different one. Then the filling stations would be responsible for keeping only the good batteries on supply and trashing/returning the ones that can't hold a charge anymore.

A big part of Tesla's strategy is to put charging stations at Rest areas on highways (they have 3 off I-95 in Connecticut already), so it would be a normal part of a trip to stop and get some food, use the bathroom etc. while it charges. I think you get a 70% charge in 40 minutes at the Supercharger stations. Remember, the only time you really need a charging station for a Tesla is for long trips. If you go to their site, they have a map for planned stations, with the intent by end of 2014 of having a station within max charge range anywhere in the country.

[strife]

A big part of Tesla's strategy is to put charging stations at Rest areas on highways (they have 3 off I-95 in Connecticut already), so it would be a normal part of a trip to stop and get some food, use the bathroom etc. while it charges. I think you get a 70% charge in 40 minutes at the Supercharger stations. Remember, the only time you really need a charging station for a Tesla is for long trips. If you go to their site, they have a map for planned stations, with the intent by end of 2014 of having a station within max charge range anywhere in the country.

In a perfect world that's right... but let's use my perfectly plausible scenarios.

Bob has a Tesla A which has an estimate range of 205 miles(depending on which battery he has). Bob works 60 miles from his home, so day 1 Bob drives to work and back for 120 miles, goes home and forgets to plug in his car. The next day he gets up, drives to work and on his way home realizes he forgot to charge his car last night. So here is Bob needing to drive 60 miles from work in a car that only has 25 miles of range left. In a gas powered car, this is no problem. Stop at the next light and 5 minutes later he's good to go. But he doesn't, so he has to find the nearest charging station and wait 40 minutes to get a full charge... or wait 20 minutes to get half charge just enough to make it home and then charge again from home.


Plausible scenario 2. I'm taking a road trip from Houston to El Paso which is 763 miles. I leave the house and driving 80 MPH(will they even go 80MPH w/out wasting extra battery?) average I get close to my 205 mile range after about 2 1/2 hours. We stop and get some food and use the can and wait the 40 minutes to get charged again. Get back in the car, drive 205 miles more and wait 40 minutes to get charged again. Repeat again and we're now 615 miles into our 763 mile trip. We've now wasted 2 hours charging our cars that we could have been driving, so this trip that should have taken us about 10 hours is now up to 12 hours just because of having to charge.


Also, 40 minutes for a charge... better hope they have 100's of charging stations... having cars sit there for 40 minutes if they ever get anywhere close to popular is going to be a hell of a backup.

[Jakensama]

I would imagine the target audience of Tesla isn't really those who regularly drive between El Paso and Houston. That's an exceedingly long trek through a lot of nothing.

[Grieve]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markrogowsky...r=yahootix

An examination of sales data from across the U.S. and in California for the first half of 2013 paints a picture of just why that is. While Tesla delivered right around 10,000 cars through two quarters, those sales appear to be coming at the expense of BMW, Mercedes, Lexus and Porsche. And Tesla’s sales are remarkably — though perhaps not surprisingly — concentrated in California thus far, with nearly half winding up in the Golden State. As the automaker continues to open new sales and service locations across the country while simultaneously growing its network of high-speed Supercharger stations, things are likely to get a bit worse for the imports.

TSLA the stock is at $161.84...was at $127.57 when I bought in (and posted here). And at $147.45 when I sold the last of mine and moved back into AAPL...which has been flat since. :roll:

[strife]

I assume y'all heard Ballmer's leaving MS. Did that effect the stock prices any?

[Grieve]

I assume y'all heard Ballmer's leaving MS. Did that effect the stock prices any?

The stock jumped 7.2% on Friday. I actually bought Sept $33 puts at the height of it, since I don't think this makes MSFT's problems (plunging PC sales, failure in phone/tablet space) any better. Plus Ballmer is still there for a year. Maybe they think Gates will come back to save the day, but I don't see it.

As for TSLA, backing up what I was saying about investing in Elon Musk more so than the cars, the director of Iron Man said that he based Tony Stark on Musk for Iron Man 1...and now Musk has made real the computer tech that Tony Stark used in the movie...

http://mashable.com/2013/08/26/elon-musk-iron-man/

[Slamz]

I think Gates and Jobs are proof positive of what a difference a good CEO can make. Microsoft at least has a potential to turn things around with someone else manning the helm. Apple (and Old Spice) has also demonstrated what a difference a whiz-bang media campaign can make to an otherwise mediocre product lineup, and I don't think Microsoft is hurting in any way other than PR, which I think a good CEO could fix.

Whether the next CEO is someone who can do that is pretty questionable, but there's no question that Ballmer was not that guy.

[strife]

Maybe Elon Musk will take over MS

[strife]

Link

I'm sure y'all already knew this but...

Tesla shares have been on a tear in recent months, rising more than five-fold since the start of this year and reaching all-time highs. Its stock added $10.03, a 6 percent gain, to hit $171.87 by midday Monday. Its market value is now about $20 billion.

The report, released by the California New Car Dealers Association, found that the Tesla Model S is among the top five selling models in the luxury and sports-car segment in the state through June of this year. It came in at number three with 4,714 registrations, behind the Mercedes E-Class and BMW 5-Series and beating out the Lexus GS and Audi A6.

There was a large spike in Tesla's popularity in June with 1,097 of the brand's California registrations coming in that month alone. That is compared to eight Tesla registrations in June of last year.

[Breand]

I will enjoy Audi's rise and fall. =) A poorly made car with a brilliant marketing campaign that the sheeple bit hook, line and sinker. But their scheme that "everyone else has a Mercedes and BMW so buy an Audi" has a pretty short shelf life when everyone suddenly has an Audi now.

[Jakensama]

My two Audis have been the only cars I have never had issues with. Mercedes look like shit and my company one back in Germanistan was garbage.. The Kraut Car hierarchy is Porsche > BMW > Audi > Mercedes > VW imo.

Of course they are better in krautland where everyone gets them with diesel engines, don't know how different the models we get here are, because cars suck.

[Breand]

Mercedes are shit cars too, no doubt overpriced and unreliable. =) Infiniti's and Lexus are the most reliable but I understand not wanting to go the Japanese route. Acura's...well I will never understand buying an Acura.

Funny enough, the new A6 got great Consumer Reports ratings, but seems like they aren't selling that well.

The BMW 135i is one of the best rated cars Consumer Reports has ever covered, was hoping I'd be able to buy one, but the new house has basically put the kibosh on that. I'm debating getting a Golf lease and hoping the Tesla E will be out in 3 years when it's time for a new car.

[Grieve]

Tesla shares have been on a tear in recent months, rising more than five-fold since the start of this year and reaching all-time highs. Its stock added $10.03, a 6 percent gain, to hit $171.87 by midday Monday. Its market value is now about $20 billion.

Yeah, the stock was trading at $35 as recently as March 19th. At that time, if you'd felt good about the stock, you could have bought a Sept $50 call option for 53 cents ($53 a contract). That contract is now going for $120.50 ($12,050 a contract).

If you'd put $1000 into those options back then, they'd now be worth $227,238...not bad for a 5 month gain...

[Vanraw]

I think Gates and Jobs are proof positive of what a difference a good CEO can make. Microsoft at least has a potential to turn things around with someone else manning the helm. Apple (and Old Spice) has also demonstrated what a difference a whiz-bang media campaign can make to an otherwise mediocre product lineup, and I don't think Microsoft is hurting in any way other than PR, which I think a good CEO could fix.

Whether the next CEO is someone who can do that is pretty questionable, but there's no question that Ballmer was not that guy.

Yea agree. Actually both Apple and Microslop have a chance to be big players. Balmer wasnt the guy, and I dont think Cook is the guy either.

Sometimes, when you want to reinvent yourself, you need to look outside.

[Grieve]

I think Gates and Jobs are proof positive of what a difference a good CEO can make. Microsoft at least has a potential to turn things around with someone else manning the helm. Apple (and Old Spice) has also demonstrated what a difference a whiz-bang media campaign can make to an otherwise mediocre product lineup

Come on now, it doesn't get any more whiz-bang than Steve Ballmer.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGvHNNOLnCk[/youtube]