Protection

[Vanraw]

That was something. On the sad note I too it in the shorts on tza but can't be sad on all my long, real investments.

S&P on Sept 39 was 1099 closing today at 1248.

[Breand]

Anyone see this article?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/leverag...ry_popular

Of course, he is stating the obvious. Of course triple leveraged etfs are a horrible long term investment. That's not what their intended use is, and if people are holding them long term, well..A fool and his money are soon parted. Outlawing them? How about treating people as adults and letting them make their own decisions about their money?

[Vanraw]

Yea I did read that this morning.

Definitely very short term stuff. Still kinda like gambling

[Grieve]

I bought some QQQ puts today. Even though the market was already down a lot when I bought, it feels like the market will sink lower after the big rally last week. I still think the market will end the year a lot higher, but I don't think it will be a straight line higher.

[Vanraw]

I bought some QQQ puts today. Even though the market was already down a lot when I bought, it feels like the market will sink lower after the big rally last week. I still think the market will end the year a lot higher, but I don't think it will be a straight line higher.

Yea I think there is some profit taking and some slight nervousness on euro still. Incidentally my bracketed order for my TZA accidentally had a good for day order. So my TZA never sold. So Friday I put in a sell with $2 trailing stop at the end of the day. Recovered some today, so a little happy. It would be nice if this would pop to 32ish so I can get out with no loss

Agree on market being up through the end of the year. The next thing we are gonna start hearing about is holiday sales projections.

[Vanraw]

I can't believe that I'm going to actually make money on my TZA. I do not deserve it as I broke all my rules.

[Grieve]

It's pretty funny, really. All the bears were grumbling that the Europe plan was going to fall apart in 6 months to a year. Just for a change, the bears weren't bearish enough - it only lasted 5 days.

My QQQ puts have already more than doubled, but that isn't even close to making up for the drubbing my long portfolio is taking...

[Breand]

You can always count on the Greeks to fuck everything up. =)

[Vanraw]

Baa. My stops kicked in at 32.34 for a loss of 3.47%. But this is mucch better then the 22% I was down.....

I do believe I may jump into tza again bit just watching for now.

[Vanraw]

SO the new question is, what is the new band / channel?

What I was playing before was a 900 dow window between 10.7k and 11.6k. the goal was to get in the middle of those and capture profit.

http://www.google.com//finance?chdnp=1&c...DJI&ntsp=0

Prior to that the range was like 11.8k to 12.6k.


Now it seems to me that the range has reset again (Though its hard to tell with the Greece mess). The main question is how low will this last Greece referendum hit? Will we return to the 10.7 / 11.6 range or is the new range something like 11.4 to 12.2?

http://www.google.com//finance?chdnp=1&c...DJI&ntsp=0

[Grieve]

I don't know if there is a range now. It all seems to be news/rumor driven...

[Vanraw]

Here is my take.

Euro trash -
===============
We thought the euro issues was subsided, thus the gains last week, but Greece just decided to push out volatility until January. The way of Greece, so goes the risk to Italy, Spain and Portugal. So we can count on continued euro trash drama. Good news might be an all out bailout from China..... But I doubt it. Only thing we can now count on is more euro drama and thus volatility.

APAC -
===========
Mean while China mfg data isnt really looking good either. Some growth but not great. There is also a suspected housing bubble in China. Asia in general is sagging.


USA -
==============
On the domestic front, US Jobs data isnt going to get better by significant leaps. We have pending news / political drama coming in November related to the auto cuts and the "super commitee" that will generate more volatility, most likely to the down side. Grid lock and the "party of no" is still bound to oppose anything Obama is going to try to do that might have a positive impact. Bottom line is like it or not we are in an election year now, and the current state of our congress means nothing is going to get done. More drama and volatility.

Meanwhile, US economy, as far as corporate earnings and such is concerned, looks pretty good. Housing and mortgage defaults is still main drag but all that is known and priced in. Our banks are in good shape (as far as default is concerned. I think holiday retail sales are going to be good. We are going to start hearing news and projection in about 2 weeks, and the real news will be on Black Monday. More volatility.

You also have allot of fund managers that are getting panicky for end of year results.

In short what I see for the next 3 months is more volatility in both directions. All news driven and not as much real financial condition driven. To me this means continued violent swings in the market, but the range is going to be consistent. I dont see us hitting the 10k lows, but you never know, if we get a couple of bad news stories in a row. I want to see what happens this week, but my guess is last weeks highs are the new high end of the range, and somewhere around 11.4ish are the lows.

[Grieve]

My take:

If there is a referendum in Greece, the markets are screwed. The Greek people will vote "no". Greece will default and be kicked out of the Euro. Domino effect will ensue.

However, I don't think there will be a referendum. The prime minister will back down, or he'll be kicked out.

As for the US, a double dip recession seems to be off the cards, even if unemployment isn't budging and growth isn't good. And corporate profits are great.

So...I think markets go up, unless the referendum (which will take weeks or months) goes ahead. But in the short term...could well be down some more. And China is certainly a wildcard, but I think they'd do fine. Smarter people are in charge there than in the US or Europe. In troubles times, democracy and a multi-party system can sometimes be more of a cross than a crutch.

I say S&P at 1400 before the year is out.

[Vanraw]

The referendum vote is slated for January. At least that is what NPR said this morning. It sounds like it is a political move for an election or vote of confidence.

I agree with a s&p 1400 mark. The question for me is the volatility getting there.

[Vanraw]

So I bit again. tried to catch TZA low hoping for a day end sell off. bought tza at 32.61 and placed a bracketed sell order for 37 with a $3 trailing stop.

[Grieve]

That trade is doing nicely right now! Be careful of holding overnight, though. If the referendum plan proves dead before the open (as is looking likely), the markets may pop in the morning.

[Jakensama]

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/inter...111014490/

[Vanraw]

That trade is doing nicely right now! Be careful of holding overnight, though. If the referendum plan proves dead before the open (as is looking likely), the markets may pop in the morning.

I let it sit with the stop in place. After hours down but we will see. In general, this is the TNA/TZA game. Im sticking to it, until 1, I double my money, or 2, I return to the original investment. Current;y I'm at a 65% profit. Though had I not screwed up and let TZA ride, I would have been up only like 28%. My stop is now at about 5% (31.10).

I'm not reading anything about the referendum being put off. Only that the date has not been finalized.

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/inter...111014490/

Hah, I love it. You know whats funny about this whole thing. If Italy and Spain were not in trouble, Greece probably would have already been kicked out of the euro for out right lying on its entrance to the euro. But Greece has the Germans and the french by the short hairs because their default would likely start the domino effect and destroy the euro. I think Greece understand this and is playing it to- the tilt.

[Jakensama]

They're going to shoot themselves in the foot eventually. Merkel might realize the importance of keeping the Euro afloat for Germany's export market, but the average tax payer here is not too fond of greece these days.. and cranky germans are not good for the Greeks historically.

(This one at daily mash was good too: http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/inter...110274474/

"EUROZONE leaders have agreed a landmark deal to save the single currency after the German chancellor said she was feeling a bit 'Fourth Reichy'.

...

A Downing Street source said: "She greeted the prime minister warmly but then leaned in and whispered, 'you're no Churchill and this time we won't fuck it up, Tommy'."

[Vanraw]

This graph sort of says it all. Why does France and Germany care? In a word, private banks would puke.......



Im trying to find a better pic of this, but its interesting. My old eyes made me print it to understand WTF it was saying.

[Vanraw]

Stop just kicked in 31.1

[Grieve]

Unlucky. I suspect that the Fed won't have any good news this afternoon, and markets will tank again. Thinking about buying more puts before the announcement.

[Grieve]

By the way, aren't you violating the wash rule by buying back these ETFs right after taking a loss in them? Or don't you care?

[Vanraw]

For right now I don't care. I'm sort of dipping the toe into the water. If I can continue I would formalize this as a trading business.

[Grieve]

That trade is doing nicely right now! Be careful of holding overnight, though. If the referendum plan proves dead before the open (as is looking likely), the markets may pop in the morning.

I'm not reading anything about the referendum being put off. Only that the date has not been finalized.

Well I called it, I was just a bit early.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Greek-PM-s...et=&ccode=