Facebook IPO

[Vanraw]

Now that time has gone by.... Can you imagine. FB has lost $47 Billion in market cap since the IPO, in 8 days of trading. WOW. Just to give and idea of what that means, here is a list of companies that have 40 to 50 billion in total market cap. So for all intensive purposes, this means the entire value of each one of these companies disappeared in 8 days. Some big names here.


Company name Symbol Market cap
==============================
Accenture Plc ACN 40.11B
Baidu.com, Inc. (ADR) BIDU 41.18B
Banco Santander, S.A. (ADR) STD 47.84B
Canon Inc. (ADR) CAJ 48.17B
Colgate-Palmolive Company CL 47.13B
E I Du Pont De Nemours And Co DD 45.43B
Eli Lilly & Co. LLY 47.69B
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. EPD 43.54B
Express Scripts Holding Company ESRX 43.18B
Ford Motor Company F 40.49B
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. GS 46.83B
Hewlett-Packard Company HPQ 44.98B
Honeywell International Inc. HON 43.86B
Monsanto Company MON 40.97B
NIKE, Inc. NKE 49.92B
News Corp NWS 47.28B
News Corp NWSA 47.20B
Simon Property Group, Inc SPG 44.63B
Starbucks Corporation SBUX 41.74B
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Grp, Inc.(ADR) SMFG 42.00B
Suncor Energy Inc. (USA) SU 42.89B
UBS AG (USA) UBS 43.57B
VMware, Inc. VMW 40.61B
Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets ETF VWO 42.08B

[Slamz]

I guess interest in the stock took a dive real fast? Looks like a lot of lost shirts to me. Anyone who got in at 40 hoping to see it take off was sure in for a disappointment.

[Grieve]

Buying into FB today (call options). 40% drop since IPO is a bit overdone - I think they are going to do a lot better than current expectations, at least in the short to medium term. Plus the iOS6 integration is a pretty big deal for them.

[Jakensama]

Whats the upside for facebooks ios 6 integration (for FB, definately a plus for ios since the android facebook app kinda blows), it doesn't seem to me like they are going to get any more market saturation from it since everyone already has it...

[Grieve]

Two reasons. One, FB doesn't just want to get new customers, they want to keep current customers. This makes it much more "sticky" and in your face. Rather than a single app (and a fairly crappy one at that) you may have but use less and less (this describes me), now every built-in app has easy ways to share on FB. And it will be much more easy for third party apps to integrate with FB (right now it is clunky).

Second, monetization. The more the two companies integrate, the more they can make money off each other. For example, buy your iOS apps or music directly from FB so they can take a cut.

There is actually a whole lot of really cool featurs in iOS6.

http://www.apple.com/ios/ios6/

Some of my favorites are;

o If you can't take a call right now, press a button have the phone remind you when you leave where you are right now. Or when you get home. Or to work.

o VIP e-mail - have the phone put up a message on the lock screen when particiular people e-mail you.

o You can set up alerts so that when you kids or friends reach a certain place (e.g. school, or home) you get a message

o Passbook. Buy digital plane or movie tickets, and they will pop up on your screen once you get to the airport, or the cinema.

o Better Siri - book restaurants, launch apps, etc

o Closed the gap with Google maps - now includes turn by turn and traffic, and will automatically reroute your directions if traffic worsens and it finds a better route. Also a stunning 3D flyover mode.

[Jakensama]

I wonder if the influx of over fbing douchebags tweeting their high scores in temple run are going to start actually turning off some facebook customers...

[Slamz]

I wonder if the influx of over fbing douchebags tweeting their high scores in temple run are going to start actually turning off some facebook customers...

That's my first thought.

My second thought is Facebook's old nemesis: privacy concerns.

I don't think every app having greater access to Facebook is necessarily going to thrill the customer base.

I also don't think having a better app is a big deal. I don't use my Facebook app because it's 99% identical to the website interface anyway. Sometimes the app or the web interface will do something better than the other but it's clear that their mobile web interface is intended to take on all aspects of an app.

(Which is, incidentally, the likely future of apps -- not phone specific apps but well designed mobile web interfaces that will work on all platforms.)


Not to say Facebook stock might not be undervalued right now -- I have no idea -- just that I don't see a bright future for them over any of the aforementioned reasons.

I'm honestly not sure where Facebook can or should go from here. Privacy concerns are probably their biggest enemy. As it is I could share my location with everyone on Facebook or my latest Amazon purchases or my latest Amazon reviews or publish my Steam achievements to Facebook but I don't do any of these things either because of privacy or because it's super lame.

[Vanraw]

The big thing that FB / Apple gets is the mobile ad dollars and such. This has been one of the big unknowns that pushed the revenue projections down. They really dont have a solid revenue game for mobile. Its a good thing for FB I think. We will see.

[Grieve]

I certainly got lucky with my timing...stock is up 20% and options up 62% since I bought on Wednesday...

[Vanraw]

yea, I had not been tracking it, and was surprised to see the 31 scroll by this morning.

[Grieve]

$33.18 now...on fire. Was even up yesterday when everything else was crashing.

[Vanraw]

rumor is they might buy RIM.

[Jakensama]

There is a Rim Job joke to be made here but it is early and I am hung over/still drunk.

[Vanraw]

FB droped to the teens as the IPO lockdown expired and people sold of shares, presumably bought at 38. I feel like the stock might be oversold

Certainly all the bad news is out. The next big move will be some mobile announcement or a company purchase.....

I gonna loo hard Monday at some calls.

[Vanraw]

I didn't buy any calls. Further research shows that more shares are still locked and will be freed in 3q and 4q. Bottom line we may not have seen the bottom.

[Grieve]

I bought a jan call today. I already have more at a much higher strike. :roll:

[Slamz]

Facebook needs to spend their money on an "anchor" of some sort.

Like I said at the start of this thread, the problem with social media is that it's fickle. Facebook wiped Myspace off the map without much reason, really, and it happened pretty quick and, I thought, pretty much out of the blue. The same thing could happen to Facebook starting tomorrow for all we know.

So I think they need an anchor. Something that creates a brand loyalty and makes people want to stick with Facebook. What that would be, exactly, I don't know.

I'd steer clear of the stock until they acquire something like that, though. Facebook today looks to me like a company built on hopes and dreams and not much else.

[Vanraw]

Im steering clear right now waiting on this overall market dip. Agree that they need to spend some money to get some sticky glue. But if they do, you will want to own it befor the rumor.

[Vanraw]

Fb has had a good run in the last quarter. But i still don't see the growth multiples here. They own 56% of the market. How is the multiple Justified? This is usually defined for growth companies. Also looks like they lost 14 million users. I don't get the price.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/faceboo...2013-01-15

Tuesday they released a dating search service. They also have a buy a gift and a promote for fee program, that frankly I never see myself ever using. This seems to be the only plan for revenue.

[Breand]

I wouldn't touch this stock with a ten foot pole.

[Grieve]

I'm still in. Amazon doesn't make sense either, but it keeps going up.

[Sebrent]

I'll give you a little info on Amazon from the perspective of someone who interned there twice.

Compared to other tech companies, Amazon has their shit together.

They have a centralized build team, centralized security team, and well-established protocols. If you go from developing for Amazon Web Services (AWS) one year to developing a new website, you use the same build system, security procedures, protocols, etc. where applicable. It makes it very easy to make good use of their people, reduces the overhead because they don't have a different set of junk for each project, etc.

They also understand how security can equal revenue (of sorts). The first time I was there, they managed to save several hundred thousand dollars of revenue in the first month of launching their anti-fraud implementation for AWS.

Having worked with a naval research lab, motorola, cisco, etc., I have a great respect for how Amazon handles their development environment. They also handle their people quite well. Daily scrums for example.

Much respect. If they had a development position that let me stay in Tennessee, I'd work for them. I tell them this each time they call me :wink:

[Grieve]

FB back above IPO price! Or at it was at the open. I still have some of the shares I got at the IPO price from eTrade...

[Vanraw]

Yea, anyone who bought it at 17 or even 20ish is genius. I really looked at it, but there were to many unknowns.

It will be interesting to see where it goes from here. The Mobile ad dollars is pretty good news.

[strife]

Yea, anyone who bought it at 17 or even 20ish is genius. I really looked at it, but there were to many unknowns.

It will be interesting to see where it goes from here. The Mobile ad dollars is pretty good news.

I wouldn't say genius... it could have just as easily tanked IMO.

Question, in 5 years, where do you think Facebook will be? Will they even exist anymore or do you think they are going to be MySpace? I'm 50/50 on it. Facebook has changed and is more about AD's and stupid shit.