11-01-2011, 11:48 AM
Here is my take.
Euro trash -
===============
We thought the euro issues was subsided, thus the gains last week, but Greece just decided to push out volatility until January. The way of Greece, so goes the risk to Italy, Spain and Portugal. So we can count on continued euro trash drama. Good news might be an all out bailout from China..... But I doubt it. Only thing we can now count on is more euro drama and thus volatility.
APAC -
===========
Mean while China mfg data isnt really looking good either. Some growth but not great. There is also a suspected housing bubble in China. Asia in general is sagging.
USA -
==============
On the domestic front, US Jobs data isnt going to get better by significant leaps. We have pending news / political drama coming in November related to the auto cuts and the "super commitee" that will generate more volatility, most likely to the down side. Grid lock and the "party of no" is still bound to oppose anything Obama is going to try to do that might have a positive impact. Bottom line is like it or not we are in an election year now, and the current state of our congress means nothing is going to get done. More drama and volatility.
Meanwhile, US economy, as far as corporate earnings and such is concerned, looks pretty good. Housing and mortgage defaults is still main drag but all that is known and priced in. Our banks are in good shape (as far as default is concerned. I think holiday retail sales are going to be good. We are going to start hearing news and projection in about 2 weeks, and the real news will be on Black Monday. More volatility.
You also have allot of fund managers that are getting panicky for end of year results.
In short what I see for the next 3 months is more volatility in both directions. All news driven and not as much real financial condition driven. To me this means continued violent swings in the market, but the range is going to be consistent. I dont see us hitting the 10k lows, but you never know, if we get a couple of bad news stories in a row. I want to see what happens this week, but my guess is last weeks highs are the new high end of the range, and somewhere around 11.4ish are the lows.
Euro trash -
===============
We thought the euro issues was subsided, thus the gains last week, but Greece just decided to push out volatility until January. The way of Greece, so goes the risk to Italy, Spain and Portugal. So we can count on continued euro trash drama. Good news might be an all out bailout from China..... But I doubt it. Only thing we can now count on is more euro drama and thus volatility.
APAC -
===========
Mean while China mfg data isnt really looking good either. Some growth but not great. There is also a suspected housing bubble in China. Asia in general is sagging.
USA -
==============
On the domestic front, US Jobs data isnt going to get better by significant leaps. We have pending news / political drama coming in November related to the auto cuts and the "super commitee" that will generate more volatility, most likely to the down side. Grid lock and the "party of no" is still bound to oppose anything Obama is going to try to do that might have a positive impact. Bottom line is like it or not we are in an election year now, and the current state of our congress means nothing is going to get done. More drama and volatility.
Meanwhile, US economy, as far as corporate earnings and such is concerned, looks pretty good. Housing and mortgage defaults is still main drag but all that is known and priced in. Our banks are in good shape (as far as default is concerned. I think holiday retail sales are going to be good. We are going to start hearing news and projection in about 2 weeks, and the real news will be on Black Monday. More volatility.
You also have allot of fund managers that are getting panicky for end of year results.
In short what I see for the next 3 months is more volatility in both directions. All news driven and not as much real financial condition driven. To me this means continued violent swings in the market, but the range is going to be consistent. I dont see us hitting the 10k lows, but you never know, if we get a couple of bad news stories in a row. I want to see what happens this week, but my guess is last weeks highs are the new high end of the range, and somewhere around 11.4ish are the lows.
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
"If you want to change the world, be that change."
--Gandhi
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"If you want to change the world, be that change."
--Gandhi