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+---- Thread: Where is the bottom? (/showthread.php?tid=11021)
Re: Where is the bottom? - Vanraw - 10-05-2012
Wow. 7.8 percent unemployment...... Going to be bump.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Grieve - 10-05-2012
At least a certain party can no longer use "never been below 8% in his term" adverts any more...and that's all I can say in this forum.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Vanraw - 10-05-2012
The core numbers don't look that outstanding, but its interesting to hear CNBC and Bloomberg folks being interviewed talking about expectations for the next number based on this report. They are all setting the expectation to the roof. Perhaps due to holiday hiring, but I dont know that I am that optimistic.
It will be interesting to see the weekly data and to make a November bet.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Vanraw - 10-09-2012
So earnings season is upon us again.
I think I'm going to dump my nov BAC calls for loss.
Hoping for some down turns to pull out of srty in the money.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Grieve - 10-12-2012
Market is pretty brutal right now. I've give from bring up 138.54% on Sept 18 to almost half that (74%) yesterday, mostly on Apple. I should learn to listen to Maul when he tells me to sell!
I'm still a believer, though - been doubling down on my Apple bets...
Re: Where is the bottom? - Vanraw - 10-12-2012
Well I have been wrong about apple almost everytime. But I still see it as a bubble. Competative pressures have to impact profit margins in the long run. Its the rule.....
As to the whole market, I would like to see some more dropage. I still think it needs a strong correction. Today the market yawned at good numbers from Wells Fargo and JPM.
My biggest long term concern on the market right now is the Fed. They have decided that proping up the market is its highest priority. I am becomming more and more convienced that its a terrible idea that will come crashing down. As Breandan said, we have a Fed Bubble right now.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Grieve - 10-12-2012
Well, Wells missed on Revs. And even though both reported record quarters, it's because they've been pulling money from their reserves. I should probably get rid of my remaining BAC calls before they report next week...
I still think we rally into year end (especially tech), but I don't know how much we'll fall before that starts.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Vanraw - 10-12-2012
Im watching my BAC calls still hoping for some pop. They seam to want to go against the market. I owned some of the stock out right that I sold and made good money, but holding on to my losing $11 nov 17 calls.
On out look, dont forget we have the budget cliff and debt cieling crap coming. If Romney is elected colngress will just pass it and start spending like they have in the past, but if Obama wins, they are going to drive the country into the shit hole again.
Everyone on CNBC this morning is saying Tech is in for a big correction. Which probabaly means you should buy
My predictiopon for end of year is that we will still have some sort of a bump / correction. Sooner then later, then a ramp up to close to where we are now. Depending on the election.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Vanraw - 10-19-2012
are you still in your tza, and are you in the black today? I have srty and Im abouit $1 in the red still. Anbother bump of negative and it profit!.... Held on thos these way to long.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Grieve - 10-19-2012
Today must have been a nice day for TZA - wish I'd had some. :roll:
Tech really got taken out to the woodshed today - thanks, Google. And Intel and IBM.
Hopefully next week can turn things around, with Netflix, Apple, EMC, VmWare, Cisco and so on. If they all miss...I'm going to be a lot poorer...
Re: Where is the bottom? - Breand - 10-23-2012
I'm still 2.5% down on my TZA...need a little more of a drop!
Re: Where is the bottom? - Vanraw - 10-23-2012
I was disappointed that Russel 2k didn't follow the market as strong as a dip. It only dropped . It only dropped .53% compared to the 1.82% of the DOW. TZA / SRTY pretty much had no leverage.....
Im thinking the week is going to be down farther.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Vanraw - 10-23-2012
I was disappointed that Russel 2k didn't follow the market as strong as a dip. It only dropped . It only dropped .53% compared to the 1.82% of the DOW. TZA / SRTY pretty much had no leverage.....
Im thinking the week is going to be down farther.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Jakensama - 10-24-2012
Seems wall street was unimpressed with Apple's overpriced (and bizarrely priced) feeble new product showing. And an incremental upgrade to the ipad after only 7 months! No wonder Grieve is too broke to pay his debts.
http://theoatmeal.com/comics/apple
Re: Where is the bottom? - Grieve - 10-24-2012
I am pretty broke right now.
But I still think Apple will hit new highs before the end of the year. Tomorrow's earnings are dicey (Apple already said iPad sales are lower than analysts expected), so we'll have to see how bad the iPhone supply constraints were.I don't think the iPad mini is overpriced. As always, the rumor sites screwed Apple by saying "sources" had told them it could sell for as little as $250, which analysts then picked up on. That was never really likely to happen.
Yes, you can get cheaper tablets from Google and Amazon, but both of those freely admit they are selling at a loss. Apple would be stupid to to try to compete with that. You think the stock would go up on a zero margin product?
They are going to sell a crapload of these before Christmas. Build quality, specs, 35% bigger screen than 7" tablets, way superior app selection...no contest.
The iPad 4 was a surprise, but rumor has it they wanted these specs for the iPad 3, but the chips weren't ready in time. Can't complain about double the speed for the same price...
Re: Where is the bottom? - Jakensama - 10-24-2012
By better specs you mean slower processor and shittier resolution, right?
The pricing is horrible because there are going to be a host of cheap 7 inch tablets for that segment of the market, and at the price point for this thing the only thing you might do is cannibalize your own oversized ipad business.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Grieve - 10-24-2012
Well since the Nexus 7 and Fire both lag well behind the 18 month old iPad 2 in GPU performance, I don't think you can say it's a slower processor yet. Let's see one the benchmarks come up.
Also, it's $329 vs $199 for the 16GB fire and $249 for the 16GB Nexus, but it also has a 35% bigger screen, weights considerably less, is considerably thinner, has a front-facing camera way better than the Fire and the same as the Nexus, has a 5MP rear facing 1080p camera (neither the nexus or the fire have one at all), and it has a unibody brushed aluminum build instead of cheap plastic. Most of all it actually has hundreds of thousands of high quality apps actually designed for a tablet, unlike the handful the Fire and Nexus have.
So we'll see. I suspect a shitload of tablets will be sold by the end of the year for everyone, but there should easily be more iPads sold that everyone else put together.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Sebrent - 10-25-2012
While Apple has received a lot of flak for the controls they've played on their app store, it has largely helped that community.
If you look at the ease at which malware is being spread in other app stores for other devices versus the difficulty of doing so in Apple's app store, you should understand what I'm talking about.
Are they immune to malware? No. Is it less prevalent? Currently, yes.
I, personally, find this to be quite an advantage when comparing devices.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Grieve - 10-25-2012
Apple just said on their earnings call that the margins on the iPad mini are way lower than any of their other devices - so much so that it will pull down their gross margin for next quarter by over 400 basis points.
I've put one on my Christmas list.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Breand - 10-26-2012
Being a cheap bastard...I have 2.5% to go to break even on my TZA holdings when I should probably just bite the bullet and make the sale today.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Vanraw - 10-26-2012
I know man Im the same way. I actually dipped into profit today! but I didnt sell, then it went down..... Im greedy and hoping for a little more market downward pressure next week.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Grieve - 11-01-2012
I must listen when Maul tells me to sell...
I must listen when Maul tells me to sell...
I must listen when Maul tells me to sell...
I must listen when Maul tells me to sell...
I must listen when Maul tells me to sell...
I must listen when Maul tells me to sell...
I must listen when Maul tells me to sell...
Re: Where is the bottom? - Vanraw - 11-02-2012
Dude, you should have Sold!!
Of course if you listened to me you would have Sold apple at 100. Then you would be taking a contract out on me.....
Re: Where is the bottom? - Slamz - 11-02-2012
I think if he wants to sell Apple at 100, he may get another chance. :-p
Re: Where is the bottom? - Grieve - 11-02-2012
$1000 before $100!
I hope.
hock: