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Re: Protection - Vanraw - 09-06-2011
I just bought into TNA again! Plan on selling it at 45ish for 20% gain. Probably in like 3 days......
http://www.google.com//finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1315339200000&chddm=8211&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NYSE:TNA&ntsp=0
Note that this is triple leveraged ETF, so it can be risky stuff. My take is as long as Volatility stays high, Im going to keep buying and selling TNA and TZA in channels.
Re: Protection - Grieve - 09-07-2011
Wow, that was great timing! Can I subscribe to MaulAlerts, so you send me an email whenever you make a trade?
Re: Protection - Vanraw - 09-08-2011
Grieve Wrote:Wow, that was great timing! Can I subscribe to MaulAlerts, so you send me an email whenever you make a trade?
Give me some of your $80 Apple stock, and I'm sure we can make deal
Re: Protection - Vanraw - 09-08-2011
I want to share a little profitable game I've been playing with TNA and TZA. Its a protection scheme so it fits in this thread.
I'm looking at the DOW and seeing what I think are dramatic changes into a channel. Right now I see a channel of a high of around 11500 and a low of 11100. This channel shifts and moves around and is highly subjective. In June / July I was calling it 12500 and 12100. I'm basically betting on the over all market going up or down inside the channel, but protecting myself with bracketed trailing stop orders. The risk of over all loss is pretty small in my opinion. I have been popping fast short term 10 to 20% gains, while only risking around 4% losses. And the losses mitigate as the stock goes up.
Again, TNA and TZA are triple leveraged ETF's and can be very risky. So this is not for the faint at heart. But they are also capable of 5turing very fast profits. For instance, today the DOW went down and TZA up 6.5%. I bought it my trailing loss has followed the stock up so that my worse loss is about 1% now. Ill explain more later, if you don't understand bracketed trading with trailing stops.
The trade above. I bought TNA at 38.23, and put in a bracketed sell order with a trailing stop. The bracket was $45 sell with a $2 trailing loss. It triggered yesterday at $45 for a 17.68% gain. This was basically a bet that the DOW would go up from its drop into the low 11k's. It did. But the most I would have lost was $2 a share and this risk was removed as the stop went up with the price of the stock automatically.
To do this all you have to do is buy the stock, and then put a bracketed sell order in right away, defining the high procei you want to sell at, and the trailing stop that will follow the stock up or trigger a sell if its hit. I use $2 for these stocks at around 40ish a share.
9/6 Buy
TNA 38.23 (dow at 10986)
Bracketed sell order at $45. Means if the stock hits $45 it is auto sold.
Trailing stop of $2 means if the stock tanked to 36.23 it will auto sell.
9/6 End of day
TNA 40.39 (DOW at 11139)
Trailing stop of $2 now means that if the stock tanks to 38.39 it is auto sold. (I can no longer lose on this trade).
9/7 Sell order kicked in at 2:pm CT
TNA $45 (DOW 11401) 17.68% profit
At this point the trailing stop was at $43 so even if the market tanked, it would have auto sold the stock for a 12.43% profit.
The main risk of this play is if the DOW does nothing or drops with no gain at all. But the total risk is $2 a share or a 5.23% loss. But as the stock rises the sell stop order rises to $2 below that price and never drops. The stop will only go up with the stock.
So..... The market kept going up and was getting close to the 11500 mark today and the top of my subjective channel. So I wanted to buy TZA to bet the market will go down. I waited for Bernanke to finish his talk to make sure he didn't bump the market. I also think that Obama speech inst going to do anything shocking, and the unemployment numbers are not going to shock positive. so, I bought TZA at 43.92 with a bracketed sell order.
9/8 Buy
TZA 43.92 (dow at 11337)
Bracketed sell order at $50. Means if the stock hits $50 it is auto sold. Note that $50 will mean to DOW will be around 11075ish.
Trailing stop of $2 means if the stock tanked to 41.92 it will auto sell.
9/8 End of day
TNA 44.70 (DOW at 11295)
Trailing stop of $2 (and the fact the stock reached 45.38) now means that if the stock tanks to 43.38 it is auto sold. (My total risk is now only .54 cents a share or 1.23% as opposed to the $2 or 4.55% risk)
So in the end I'm half hoping the DOW drops 150 to 200 points tomorrow or Monday.... If it does Ill be up another 13.8% And once the DOW hits into the 11000 area, Ill buy TNA again with another Bracketed trailing stop and hope for it to go up..... The worse thing that can happen to me is the stock market rallies tomorrow and my stop kicks in for a 1.23% loss.
There are a couple advantages of this method.
1. Its a Macro trade and not subject to a individual stocks quarterly report. (Though you can do the same Bracket trailing stop with a stock like Apple or any other stock).
2. It mitigates risk in the same way that options do, but at no cost of buying options.
3. It allows you to play the short market (TZA) with out the "unlimited loss" potential of a short.
4. For the most part its a play on feeling of the geo political environment that I'm in tune with anyway.
5. It lets the average guy jump into the volatility of today's market chaos like a day trader might with out having to day trade or to stress over missing a move.
Re: Protection - Vanraw - 09-09-2011
Just to keep up on this protection tactic. This is where I'm at on the trade of TZA
9/8 Buy
TZA 43.92 (dow at 11337)
Bracketed sell order at $50. Means if the stock hits $50 it is auto sold. Note that $50 will mean to DOW will be around 11075ish.
Trailing stop of $2 means if the stock tanked to 41.92 it will auto sell.
9/9 Morning
TNA 44.70 (DOW at 11295)
Trailing stop of $2 (and the fact the stock reached 47.95) now means that if the stock tanks to 45.95 it is auto sold. (My total worse risk now is a gain of 4.62 percent). This is the worse case now. If I was to sell it out right right now, I would gain 9%, but Im holding for 50 which is where my auto sell is.
Re: Protection - Grieve - 09-09-2011
I like this right now, with the market swinging wildly from one day to the next. It'd ideal if the market is down big one day and then up big the next, which has been the trend.
But...you never quite know when you are going to get 8 down days in a row, or 8 up days in a row for that matter. If you stop is triggered, when you do get back in? And how do you figure out what the current range is? It seems to be more due to fundamentals/news than technicals right now.
I do think if some of Obama's jobs package starts to gain traction that we could see a nice bump up.
Re: Protection - Vanraw - 09-09-2011
9/8 Buy
TZA 43.92 (dow at 11337)
Bracketed sell order at $50. Means if the stock hits $50 it is auto sold. Note that $50 will mean to DOW will be around 11075ish.
Trailing stop of $2 means if the stock tanked to 41.92 it will auto sell.
9/9 Morning
TZA 44.70 (DOW at 11295)
Trailing stop of $2 (and the fact the stock reached 47.95) now means that if the stock tanks to 45.95 it is auto sold. (My total worse risk now is a gain of 4.62 percent). This is the worse case now. If I was to sell it out right right now, I would gain 9%, but Im holding for 50 which is where my auto sell is.[/quote]
9/9 Stop limit Sell order kicked in at 9:10 CT
TZA $45.91 (DOW 11145) 4.53% profit
Remember this was my trailing stop loss trigger. TZA has gone up again right after this hit, but must resist changing the original rules of the trade that were defined. I'm perfectly fine with a 4.5% Plus a 17% gain in 5 days.
Next step is monitor the DOW. I'm very close to buying TNA again with a bracketed stop loss again, in a bet the dow will rise again to 11400 area.
Re: Protection - Vanraw - 09-09-2011
Grieve Wrote:But...you never quite know when you are going to get 8 down days in a row, or 8 up days in a row for that matter. If you stop is triggered, when you do get back in? And how do you figure out what the current range is? It seems to be more due to fundamentals/news than technicals right now.
Yep, this is the subjective risk part. You have trust your gut when you jump in. But note that if you jump in and its followed by a large swing in the opposite direction of your bet, then you lose around 5%. Lick your wounds and wait for the next jump....
I think this works in the volatile market we have right now, but not in a standard environment. My bet right now is that we will not see a drop below 10k in the next week, and that some euro news or news on republicans saying they might deal with Obama will launch the market positive again. So I will trade on that hunch.
Re: Protection - Vanraw - 09-09-2011
So I just dipped into TNA again as the dow has reached "my" low end of the channel.
9/9 Buy
TNA 38.75 (dow at 10996)
Bracketed sell order at $45. Means if the stock hits $45 it is auto sold.
Trailing stop of $2 means if the stock tanked to 36.37 it will auto sell.
Re: Protection - Grieve - 09-09-2011
Ah, you talked me into it.
But of course...I had to do my own high-risk take on it.
I just bought two Sept $40 TNA call options for $520 (plus commission). Hoping to sell for $1000-1500ish if the market snaps back quickly. If it keeps falling, it's probably bye-bye $520.
Re: Protection - Vanraw - 09-09-2011
Well my trailing stop kicked in and sold at 37.85 for a 2.32% loss.
I think perhaps $2 isnt a wide enough stop for this 3x leverage. It just moves too fast! For the hell of it I jumped right back in..... This time with a $3 trailing stop.
Re: Protection - Grieve - 09-14-2011
Grieve Wrote:I just bought two Sept $40 TNA call options for $520 (plus commission). Hoping to sell for $1000-1500ish if the market snaps back quickly. If it keeps falling, it's probably bye-bye $520.I lost my nerve to hold this to Friday, decided to sell while the market was on an upswing. Around a 50% profit (bought at 2.60, sold at 4.10) - was hoping for more, but I can't complain.
Hoping to do the same (but with more money in) with some puts if the market keeps going up. What's your next sell point, Maul?
Re: Protection - Vanraw - 09-14-2011
You should have waited until today
It did get a little nervy there though... Nice trade / profit. This is what Im holding right now.
9/9 Buy
TNA 39.686
Bracketed sell order at $45. Means if the stock hits $45 it is auto sold.
Trailing stop of $5. Currently the trailing stop is at 39.80 which means the worse I could do is a .22% gain.
Right now the trade is up 12.89 percent, and I changed the sell order to $50. Might be a greedy play Ill regret. The DOW would have to get to around 11,500. This was my original high on the cyclical pattern. My bet right now is that we are not going to get bad news tomorrow from Grease / Italy. So the that bad news would have to be jobs. Since expectations are so low, any sort of a positive number should bump the market.
So my swing in the DOW right now remains at 11,500 to 10,950. So I think the buy and sell points are inside those points. Meaning something like 14,250 to 11,100 ish.
hmm as I look at it I should sell now......
FYI rather then do a put or a short, look at TZA. TZA and TNA are the exact opposites. A call in TZA might be a better play then a put on TNA, but from a market perspective they are the same.
Re: Protection - Vanraw - 09-14-2011
I should have left it alone. TNA popped to over 45, and then quickly tanked. I need to stick with my plans.....
So we will see tomorrow morning what happens. The nice think about the system though is that the very worse I could do now, is gain 2.4%.
Re: Protection - Grieve - 09-14-2011
Vanraw Wrote:You should have waited until todayI did sell today (mid afternoon), but well off the highs. The range today alone was 2.25 to 5.80 - pretty crazy! 5.80 would have been a 123% gain... But I'm much happier with 4.10 than 2.25.
Vanraw Wrote:FYI rather then do a put or a short, look at TZA. TZA and TNA are the exact opposites. A call in TZA might be a better play then a put on TNA, but from a market perspective they are the same.I'll take a look at that, thanks!
I'm also considering REALLY out of the money puts for the middle of next year. A lot of people are calling for armageddon (e.g. Dow 3000). I don't believe it, but if I can buy cheap protection I will.
For example...could buy a QQQ $40 June 2012 put for $1.52 ($152). If the Nasdaq ended up dropping 50% before then, it would be worth thousands. Maybe even a few $31 puts for $0.57 ($57)...
Re: Protection - Vanraw - 09-14-2011
Dow at 3k would be scary.
I have to say that I might not be surprised to see it go to 8k or even lower, but I also would not be surprised to see it go to 13.5k. Too many uncertainties. I have been seriously thinking about pulling everything out. even the long 401k's IRA's etc. But Ive gotten burned to often by missing the bounce back. If the market hits 13ish again, I may very well pull everything out.
I've been siding away from the short term calls and the puts just for the contract sale, only because in this market its too easy to be holding a worthless option. The system Im using now has given me around 30% winning trades / gain with a 7% losing trades / loss. So over all up over 20% in 3 weeks, in a market that is bat shit crazy. I've been playing with this, meaning no serious money with each trade at 200 shares. But if I keep up the same performance, with the safety net, who knows....
The one thing I have learned is that with TNA / TZA, a $2 trailing stop isnt enough. The stock dips to fast and the protection kicks in to fast. I'm going to stick with $5 and the tighten it up as I get into the money.
Re: Protection - Grieve - 09-15-2011
Bugger...those calls I sold are back up 5.80 today... :roll:
I have been considering getting out as well. My brokerage account is up 61% for the year, and I feel like I'm greedy holding out for more (especially when the S&P is down 5.48%). Already down from up 91% in July.
But like you said, I hate to miss out on a rally. I'm mostly in tech stocks, and Q4 is usually their best quarter. If the Europe situation improves, there could be a huge rally into the end of the year. For Apple especially, the announcement of the iPhone 5 coupled with another blow-out quarter could push the stock over $500.
But...if things go south...I can see +61% changing to -80% real fast...
If we keep rallying today I might get some TZA puts for tomorrow.
Re: Protection - Vanraw - 09-15-2011
FYI I changed the bracket sell to 45.5 and it triggered for a 14.65% gain. Overall I'm at 27% gain since starting this.
I'm in a watch and see, but will be moving to TZA next. Hoping the DOW goes a bit higher first.
Re: Protection - Vanraw - 09-15-2011
Grieve Wrote:But...if things go south...I can see +61% changing to -80% real fast...
yea, Im trying to see the risk of a big crash right now, and I think its just the Euro breakdown or European banks defaults.
Re: Protection - Grieve - 09-15-2011
Vanraw Wrote:FYI I changed the bracket sell to 45.5 and it triggered for a 14.65% gain. Overall I'm at 27% gain since starting this.Very nice trade!
I'm in a watch and see, but will be moving to TZA next. Hoping the DOW goes a bit higher first.
Let's just quit our jobs now and become full-time day traders.
Re: Protection - Vanraw - 09-15-2011
I jumped into TZA at 41.23. have a bracketed $48 sell with a $5 trailing stop......
Rooting for the bears now.
Re: Protection - Grieve - 09-15-2011
I was stuck in a meeting and didn't get a chance to buy TZA calls.
So I'm rooting for the bulls now.
After the central bank move, we may be in for some upside for a while anyway - we'll see.
Re: Protection - Vanraw - 09-19-2011
Go Go Bears.... TZA 44.10
Re: Protection - Breand - 09-19-2011
this is cool info, thanks. I will look into it, but Sharebuilder seems to be very limited on the types of trades you can do, will have to research it out. May be time to move on from them. Are there still commissions on the auto sells?
The most recent thing Ive done is load up on my own company's stock: CVC. It went down to 15.64 last week which was eye popping to me so I bought a bunch. Back up to 17.50 so nice pickup there, but I'm long on it till it gets back up in the $25 range.
Re: Protection - Vanraw - 09-21-2011
Vanraw Wrote:I jumped into TZA at 41.23. have a bracketed $48 sell with a $5 trailing stop......
Rooting for the bears now.
Changed my braket sell today to 46, cause I was nervous about the fed pumping up the market. It kicked in at made 11.57% percent gain. Since starting this little "game", I'm up 40%.
Looking to do the same now on TNA. I think we are going to see some upside now. The fed announced its "twist". The market puked on the news, but in the end stocks are going to push higher. Also some really nice numbers out of Oracle as well as Housing starts.