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+---- Thread: Where is the bottom? (/showthread.php?tid=11021)
Re: Where is the bottom? - Vanraw - 07-24-2012
Actually Im looking at TNA before the bell as well.
What do you think Apples number will be?
Rumor on news is good but unknown on outlook. This is a in between quarter, meaning they really didnt have a launch.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Grieve - 07-24-2012
It all depends on China. We already know iPhone sales in the US are down quarter to quarter (as expected, with people waiting for the iPhone 5) from Verizon and AT&T reports. Chances are that Europe is going to be down as well, probably even more. China is the wild card - the economy is cooling there as well, but they love Apple stuff.
If China is weak, earnings will probably miss. If China sales are up from last quarter, though, it could be a blowout. Either way, outlook for next quarter will likely be very conservative, if the iPhone 5 isn't due until October.
It doesn't really matter either way, except in the short term. With the iPhone 5, iPad mini, refreshed iPods, refreshed macs, and maybe iTV all coming in the next few months, the stock should be way higher by the end of the year. Almost all my call spreads are for Jan 2013.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Vanraw - 07-24-2012
Agree on the short term, just curious what Apple will have on the market as a whole. Was reading an interesting piece on what the fact that the S&P would be down an additional 5% if it were not for Apple.
In the end I think we are at a short term bottom right now. This might not be the bottom for the summer but I'm buying TNA right now.
Done.
Hoping for 55ish in the next week.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Grieve - 07-24-2012
Crap,huge miss
Market is going to crater.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Vanraw - 07-25-2012
Im ok with the TNA buy. Still think we are at a short term bottom.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Vanraw - 07-26-2012
Its rally day!
Re: Where is the bottom? - Breand - 07-26-2012
bah, I didn't call that one. i finally got out of CVC (my own company lol) yesterday with a small profit. Ive been forced to sit on that for ages because it tanked so low. Sitting heavily on cash right now, hoping for a new Euro crisis before I buy again. =)
Re: Where is the bottom? - Vanraw - 07-26-2012
But disappointed in the tna performance. Its basically trading at the same level as the market.it suppose to be triple leveraged.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Breand - 07-26-2012
Well the Russell 2000 isnt doing as well today as the other indexes.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Vanraw - 07-27-2012
I jumped out of TNA for a nice 12% pop.
Might jump into TZA but going to wait for Monday. My gut is the dow at 13k ish is a good high right now. Might see a better run in fall, but I dont think we have seen the last of the down weeks like we had last week.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Grieve - 07-27-2012
I sold my TNA calls yesterday...today they are worth almost 7 times what I sold them for... :roll:
Re: Where is the bottom? - Slamz - 07-27-2012
Market liked the news out of Europe -- big names saying they'd do "whatever it takes" to stop a breakup of the Euro.
I doubt we've heard the last of this, though.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Vanraw - 07-27-2012
Yea, I think euro trash is going to continue to be the volatility driver. The reality is traders are doing exactly what I am, either with ETF's or options, and just calling the tops and bottoms.
I suspect we are close to a high today. Some news on the weekend could push Monday either way so good to sit. Next will be the monthly jobs report. I suspect it will disappoint, which means TZA or any of the bear ETF's will play well.
I think this year is looking just like last year. If the trend continues in the next month we will have a dramatic drop. followed by a nice run to the end of the year. So all we need is an Iran or North Korea to do something silly. Seems like they are due.
If the world is flat on Monday I think I will buy TZA.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Vanraw - 07-30-2012
Interesting news week.
ECB meeting, Wednesday
Fed meeting, Thursday
July jobs report. Friday.
These will drive the markets this week.
The ECB will try to pump a good message. But they hAve little power to actually do anything.
I suspect the fed will not do anything shocking. Which means the market will not like it.
I predict the jobs numbers will be slightly better then expected.
So in the end, a mixed bag.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Vanraw - 07-30-2012
Just bought TZA. Looking for a short term drop.
Re: Where is the bottom? - OrsunVZ - 07-30-2012
Vanraw Wrote:I predict the jobs numbers will be slightly better then expected.
Why?
Re: Where is the bottom? - Vanraw - 07-30-2012
OrsunVZ Wrote:Vanraw Wrote:I predict the jobs numbers will be slightly better then expected.
Why?
Because the expectation is based on last months seasonal slow down, and the expectations are so low. Slightly being the operative word. Probably still 8.2.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Grieve - 07-30-2012
Vanraw Wrote:Just bought TZA. Looking for a short term drop.Good instincts, my friend! Looks like a rough day. AAPL is roaring on iPhone 5 release date rumors, though...
Re: Where is the bottom? - OrsunVZ - 07-30-2012
Vanraw Wrote:OrsunVZ Wrote:Vanraw Wrote:I predict the jobs numbers will be slightly better then expected.
Why?
Because the expectation is based on last months seasonal slow down, and the expectations are so low. Slightly being the operative word. Probably still 8.2.
Ok, so definitely relative to expectation. Gotcha. I can buy that.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Vanraw - 08-01-2012
Wow, adp employment numbers, blew away estimates. If Friday number hits at that level, the pct may drop to 8.1 or lower. However, the market just yawned.....
I was hoping for some more downward trend by fed saying meh. but may sell tza today in anticipation of strong Friday numbers.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Vanraw - 08-01-2012
Well, I didnt sell my TZA yet and the FEd came through..... Did anyone actually believe these guys would do anything? I now wonder if I should wait for the ECB to announce they have no ability and everyone is screwed......
No way am I going to be short for Friday morning jobs data.....
Re: Where is the bottom? - Grieve - 08-01-2012
I'd wait for ECB - I agree there really isn't a lot they can do.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Vanraw - 08-01-2012
yea Im waiting. worse case scenerio is I lose some of the profit. I put in stops.
I would like to see TZA hit $21. That would be a 18% gain. Still gona sell ahead of Friday jobs data. I want to be back on the sidelines.
Re: Where is the bottom? - Grieve - 08-02-2012
So far looks like a good call on your part!
Re: Where is the bottom? - Vanraw - 08-02-2012
yea I just jumped out for a 12.5% gain. So the TNA and TZA trades in 7 days, made 24.5%.
I'm back to cash. My gut feeling is there will be a rally tomorrow based on Jobs data but just not sure, so sitting on the sidelines.
Ill probably regret it.