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+---- Thread: Selloff next week? (/showthread.php?tid=10787)
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Re: Selloff next week? - Vanraw - 05-17-2012
Breand Wrote:Annnnndddd Im out of TZA. Finally down to a 4% loss...I'll take it.
4% loss is good after that run the market had. Everyday this week, I said I was going to cell my FAZ. Up another 6% today. But I didnt sell. I guess Im waiting to be able to say "I SHOULD A"
I do think that we are approaching a low of the channel. so I think I will be dumping tomorrow no matter what. Then!! let the volatility begin :-). We are going to see all sorts of swings in the next couple of months.
Re: Selloff next week? - Breand - 05-17-2012
Normally Id just let it ride but we are starting the process of selling our home and buying another, so I need to start unwinding some of the stuff I have caught up in my trading account....so bye bye TZA.
Re: Selloff next week? - Grieve - 05-17-2012
Congrats on holding out for just a 4% loss - you could have bailed out at the market top and be kicking yourself now.
I think (hope) we are nearing a bottom. Apple is trading at a ridiculous valuation. I suspect it's because of the Facebook IPO - I sold all the Apple in my wife's IRA to fund buying FB shares, and I bet I'm not the only one. Tomorrow I'll either not get any FB allocation, or I'll get some and sell it all right away. Either way, everything will be going back into AAPL...
Re: Selloff next week? - Vanraw - 05-18-2012
I think I will be jumping into a bull leveraged etf. The scary stuff seems to all be out there allready. Unless some one like BAC or WFC suddenly posted a JPM cluster #$$%^& then we should start to see some up turn.
Re: Selloff next week? - Vanraw - 05-19-2012
Well I did not sell. Up another 3.4 percent.
Re: Selloff next week? - Grieve - 05-19-2012
It looks to be following the pattern of the last couple of years...great start to the year, early peak in April, violent sell-off, treat water for a while, and then off to the races in the second half of the year. I'm expecting the same for this year too.
http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=1&chfdeh=0&chdet=1337456706986&chddm=267090&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=INDEXSP:.INX&ntsp=0
Re: Selloff next week? - Vanraw - 05-19-2012
Yes,I agree. I think we will the violent swings too.
Re: Selloff next week? - Vanraw - 05-21-2012
Finally out of my FAZ. Took a loss but no where near what it would have been.
I broke rule on my system for managing these leveraged ETF. I did not put the trailing stop order in when I bought it. not say I wouldn't have followed all the way down......
Since I started this little experiment, i'm up 42%. Not bad, but my plan was to have doubled after 16 trades. This was the 16th trade.
Re: Selloff next week? - Grieve - 05-21-2012
Vanraw Wrote:Finally out of my FAZ. Took a loss but no where near what it would have been.Tough market to do this sort of thing...once it got out of that trading range it was in last year. Still being up 42% after all that is pretty good!
I broke rule on my system for managing these leveraged ETF. I did not put the trailing stop order in when I bought it. not say I wouldn't have followed all the way down......
Since I started this little experiment, i'm up 42%. Not bad, but my plan was to have doubled after 16 trades. This was the 16th trade.
My trading account already dropped from 84% up to 44% up since March 29th...but I'm hopeful of getting back up to 100%.
Grieve Wrote:Apple is trading at a ridiculous valuation. I suspect it's because of the Facebook IPOI may have been onto something...FB down almost 11% today, AAPL up almost 6% on no news. I think like me a lot of people sold their winning stocks to buy FB, and now have sold FB and getting back to the winners. GOOG and AMZN both well up today as well.
Re: Selloff next week? - Vanraw - 05-23-2012
Some short term musings about where I think the market is going ......
Its all about the news.
I think we are approaching a bottom from a news cycle perspective. Today's sell off looks like it will be China fears of growth. The next big thing is going to be the Jobs reports next week. 5/31 is the ADP and 6/1 is the labor department.
My take is those jobs reports are going to be the drivers of the market over the next month.
- China and euro trash seemed to be priced in.
- JPM bull shit is settling down.
- Iran and North Korea are all meandering around with nothing really new on the horizon.
- While China economy can still be a concern / unknown, I'm not sure anything will be explosive.
So whats on the news horizon? Jobs (may 31 and June 1) and GDP Q1 preliminary (May 31). I think GDP is going to be at its 2.x disappointing level, which is one of the reasons the market went to the bears. But if the Jobs data doesn't reflect an additional 200k plus private sector jobs, it may get ugly.
So in short, I am now slightly bullish. I think the DOW and S&P may drop to the high 11k and 1.2k ranges respectively, but those will be bottoms. If the Jobs data is ok or good, I think we are now at the bottom...... However if the jobs data is terrible, we could see a very large sell off that would put the dow back under 11k like it did last July / August.
just some rambling thoughts.
Re: Selloff next week? - Breand - 05-23-2012
I wouldnt do anything until Tuesday. This is a scary article. It does line up perfectly, use the extra day of Memorial Day when markets are closed to do Greece's exit to give them additional time. Tuesday could be a blood bath and a nice buying opportunity.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-22/war-gaming-greek-euro-exit-highlights-hazards-in-46-hour-weekend.html
Re: Selloff next week? - Grieve - 05-23-2012
Markets had a very nice comeback today.
Re: Selloff next week? - Breand - 05-24-2012
yeah and I bought TNA at noon when it was down...nice 1 day return =) My guess is there will be a decent rally again Friday...Tuesday all bets are off.
Re: Selloff next week? - Vanraw - 06-01-2012
Boom, terrible jobs report. There's blood on the floor.
Re: Selloff next week? - Breand - 06-01-2012
yeah best Romney ad he didn't have to pay anything for! Yikes.
Re: Selloff next week? - Vanraw - 06-01-2012
Breand Wrote:yeah best Romney ad he didn't have to pay anything for! Yikes.
Well not to get political here, but if the dems were smart they would show that this is caused by the house and filibustering Senate who will not pass legislation that will help America. Might be interesting to see how both sides play it. I will say that Cantor was on CNBC right after the jobs numbers, and he was unsuccessfully trying to not act giddy and happy at the numbers.
OK, STOP on the politics. We can start up a thread there.
Re: Selloff next week? - Grieve - 06-01-2012
Yeesh, that jobs report was evil. It's going to be a looooonnnngggg summer...