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Holy 10% swing in the market since 1pm! It looks like we'll be closing up almost 7% from the -3% lows just a few hours ago.
Days like today reinforce my belief that you can't time these markets.
"Hamilton is really a Colossus to the anti republican party. Without numbers he is an host within himself. They have got themselves into a defile where they might be finished but too much security on the republican part will give time to his talents and indefatigableness to extricate them. We have had only middling performances to oppose to him. In truth when he comes forward there is nobody but yourself who can meet him. His adversaries having begun the attack he has the advantage of answering them and remains unanswered himself. For God's sake take up your pen and give a fundamental reply to Curtius and Camillas" - Thomas Jefferson to James Madison
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I had a tough decision today. Did I want to buy a case of Smithwicks, or spend that money on purchasing the controlling interest in General Motors?
In the end, I thought the Smithwicks was the better deal.
The CK Machine
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Well I tell you what. I dipped into the short term cycle. I bought Option calls for JNJ yesterday at a strike of 60 with a December expiration and sold them today for a 100% profit.
Its risky stuff, But it seemed like a sure thing at the time. I have a small chuck of cash that I play options with in the same way someone would play the slots. Sometimes you lose it all but sometimes you turn 2200 into 4400.
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
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This is a sobering read...amd Ferguson is an EXTREMELY smart dude when it comes to financial history:
DOBBS: Well Mayor Daley saying the country hasn't seen anything like this, at least in Chicago, since the Great Depression. Our economy, of course, is the most pressing challenge facing this nation and the president-elect. Joining me now, Harvard University professor, Niall Ferguson, he's author of the new book just out today, "The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World." Good to have you with us.
NIALL FERGUSON, AUTHOR: Nice to be back, Lou.
DOBBS: "The Ascent of Money." The timing could not be more impeccable. The idea that we could be in this kind of a mess. It obviously occurred to you, or you wouldn't have begun writing this. What was the warning sign that you saw?
FERGUSON: Two years ago I was at a conference of investment bankers and hedge fund managers. And I suggested that they should watch out for a liquidity crisis that was coming their way, and they kind of pooh-poohed and jeered me. And I went away thinking, you know, people are not ready for this and ordinary folks aren't ready for it. They're not ready for the shock that's going to hit them and they need to see this in historical context because it's going to be as big, as Mayor Daley said, as big as the Great Depression.
DOBBS: This is as big as the Great Depression. Whatever the dimensions of this ultimately turn out to be, there's no question that the federal response is massive. We're talking about at least right now, $2 trillion injected through the Federal Reserve itself. Approaching $1 trillion, once the $700 billion bailout is, is completed. What is, what are your thoughts about the, this bailout and the response of the government?
FERGUSON: Well this is the big difference between now and the Great Depression. Because back then, the Fed did next to nothing. In fact, if anything it made matters worse and the U.S. government simply wasn't in the position to borrow $2 trillion at the drop of a hat. I call this the Great Repression. We're trying to repress a depression, by pouring trillions of dollars into the financial system. And you know, it's not yet clear that it's going to work. We're certainly stuck with a big recession. And it's a still a possibility that we could end up with something worse.
DOBBS: Something worse. And that nod, as one watches these markets, as volatile as they've been, the sell off. Hank Paulson, the treasury secretary, going back to late September, as they're pushing for this bailout, saying we could have an absolute meltdown, a disaster.
Obviously the stock market has sold off to a five-year low already. Despite all of this money, this injection of liquidity into the economy, and then we have people talking about the Obama administration to be, talking about a large stimulus package in addition.
FERGUSON: There are two big worries here. One is that you can pour money into banks that are near-dead. But you can't force them to lend it out and to create new credit. It's a little bit like Japan in the 1990s. The banks are on life support, but they're not actually generating any new loans. They're just trying to stay alive. The other big worry is the bond market. How much can the international bond market absorb of new 10-year treasuries? If it's $2 trillion, the deficit could be as big as that next year. At some point, I think foreign investors, including the Chinese are going to say, enough, already. And then it could get very ugly in the bond market.
DOBBS: How ugly?
FERGUSON: Well ugly enough to drive yields up. And if yields go up, the cost of government borrowing going up and the thing begins to spiral out of control. Then you have to worry about the dollar. That's been propped up by Asian central banks, has been for years now. It's rallied recently, rather like the stock market rallied today. But these rallies are illusory. They're bumps on the way down. And I think none of your viewers should be in any doubt about just how serious this is. That's why you need the historical perspective because this is beyond our memory, really. We have to go back to the '30s to encounter something quite this scary.
DOBBS: How long, the economic crisis? We won't characterize it as either a depression or a recession. How long the crisis before we begin to see growth return, some vigor in this economy?
FERGSUSON: Well we're used to recessions lasting maybe a quarter or two quarters, but this is going to be something that lasts years. Japan had a lost decade if you remember in the 1990s. There was next to no growth in that period. And the situation is similar. It begins with a real estate crash. It ends with the banks in desperate difficulty. Huge government bail outs, zero interest rates. The Japanese tried all this in the 1990s and didn't get much of a response. So this is for the long haul.
And I think we have to hope to get away with just low growth, rather than the catastrophe of the depression. That's what we're going to try to avoid. But I must say, I get more and more pessimistic, particularly about the international coordination. I mean, I don't expect much of this G-20 meeting that's coming up, except talk. But it was that absence of international coordination that caused a lot of the trouble in the '30s.
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Singularity Wrote:I had a tough decision today. Did I want to buy a case of Smithwicks, or spend that money on purchasing the controlling interest in General Motors?
In the end, I thought the Smithwicks was the better deal.
Maybe if we all pool our beer money, we can buy GM and Fannie May.
"Hamilton is really a Colossus to the anti republican party. Without numbers he is an host within himself. They have got themselves into a defile where they might be finished but too much security on the republican part will give time to his talents and indefatigableness to extricate them. We have had only middling performances to oppose to him. In truth when he comes forward there is nobody but yourself who can meet him. His adversaries having begun the attack he has the advantage of answering them and remains unanswered himself. For God's sake take up your pen and give a fundamental reply to Curtius and Camillas" - Thomas Jefferson to James Madison
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Dustie Wrote:Singularity Wrote:I had a tough decision today. Did I want to buy a case of Smithwicks, or spend that money on purchasing the controlling interest in General Motors?
In the end, I thought the Smithwicks was the better deal.
Maybe if we all pool our beer money, we can buy GM and Fannie May.
GM funds 750,000 retirement checks and other than a possible pure electric car, doesn't have a product line thats anything the other guys don't.
We're better off drinking the beer. However, with three quarters of a million retiree pensions and millions of satelite bussinesses at stake I suppose someones going to need to keep them a float if just for the retirees. Whoever that is going to be can probably kiss they're money goodbye unless they can get all the current GM upper management new brains or fired. Unfortunately the "YES MEN" of the 1980's are in charge now and no one really took the time to teach them anything along the way. :cry: Rick Wagoner is no Lee Iococa.
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Bach Wrote:Dustie Wrote:Singularity Wrote:I had a tough decision today. Did I want to buy a case of Smithwicks, or spend that money on purchasing the controlling interest in General Motors?
In the end, I thought the Smithwicks was the better deal.
Maybe if we all pool our beer money, we can buy GM and Fannie May.
GM funds 750,000 retirement checks and other than a possible pure electric car, doesn't have a product line thats anything the other guys don't.
We're better off drinking the beer. However, with three quarters of a million retiree pensions and millions of satelite bussinesses at stake I suppose someones going to need to keep them a float if just for the retirees. Whoever that is going to be can probably kiss they're money goodbye unless they can get all the current GM upper management new brains or fired. Unfortunately the "YES MEN" of the 1980's are in charge now and no one really took the time to teach them anything along the way. :cry: Rick Wagoner is no Lee Iococa.
I wonder if part of the Governemtn bailout they are hoping for would get them out from under the payments to retirees. I think the airlines did that and it seemed to work for them.
I'm assuming if GM went bust the retirees would be totally screwed. If the Govt took of the pension they would probably just be partialy screwed as I'm sure the benefits would not be as rich as they are now.
put me down in the Beer column
Hows the Beer industry doing anyway?
Another Ben Franklin Quote:
"Beer is proof God loves us and wants us to be happy." :wink:
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Dead cat bounce.
My name is Waeloga and I approve of this message.
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I have said it before. If your in this market for the long run, you lose.
The players are eating longs alive and have been for 10 years now. All the brokers have been lieing or misled.
Go look at the DOW, S&P and NASDAQ Composite for 10 years. This will put just before the internet bubble. Here are the results.
DOW -4.73%
S&P500 -22.42%
NASD -17.92%
Now go compare that to a 10k 2% CD.
10 year investment
DOW S&P500 NASD 2% savings account
Invested 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000
Gain loss -4.73% -22.42% -17.92% 21.90%
==================================
Balance $9,527 $7,758 $8,208 $12,190
All I'm playing now is short term stuff.
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
"If you want to change the world, be that change."
--Gandhi
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Even if a long term guy were to agree with you about the past, you're making an excellent point for taking a long view from here moving forward. :D
"Hamilton is really a Colossus to the anti republican party. Without numbers he is an host within himself. They have got themselves into a defile where they might be finished but too much security on the republican part will give time to his talents and indefatigableness to extricate them. We have had only middling performances to oppose to him. In truth when he comes forward there is nobody but yourself who can meet him. His adversaries having begun the attack he has the advantage of answering them and remains unanswered himself. For God's sake take up your pen and give a fundamental reply to Curtius and Camillas" - Thomas Jefferson to James Madison
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Sure as long as you can pick bottoms and the tops. A fools game at best.
My real point is that the market is no longer about value, but players manipulation. I think its about finding the nitch, but the view should be short to medium at best.
So buying JNJ at 58 or 60 is a good choice in my opinion. But set targerts for sale at 10 or 20% gains with stop loss triggers at 10%.
So if JNJ hits 54 dump it.
If JnJ goes above 66, say 70, think about selling portions.
I just have no faith in the system and who controls it right now. And if a broker gives you the "The dow has always made money.... bla bla bla. Call thier bluff and walk out the door with your money.
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
"If you want to change the world, be that change."
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Target down 12% today. This might be the worst day of my life.
My new personal opinion is that the markets are all waiting for me to sell before they bottom out and start recovering thus breaking my buy and hold forever stance.
I'm sorry to drag everyone down with me, but I'm not selling. Do you hear me!
"Hamilton is really a Colossus to the anti republican party. Without numbers he is an host within himself. They have got themselves into a defile where they might be finished but too much security on the republican part will give time to his talents and indefatigableness to extricate them. We have had only middling performances to oppose to him. In truth when he comes forward there is nobody but yourself who can meet him. His adversaries having begun the attack he has the advantage of answering them and remains unanswered himself. For God's sake take up your pen and give a fundamental reply to Curtius and Camillas" - Thomas Jefferson to James Madison
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Don't feel bad, Dustie. I bought 15 shares of GM back when it was $4.40/share. Odds are that $70 is gone, baby, gone! =)
The CK Machine
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Singularity Wrote:Don't feel bad, Dustie. I bought 15 shares of GM back when it was $4.40/share. Odds are that $70 is gone, baby, gone! =)
What brokerage do you use and how much commission do you pay?
"Hamilton is really a Colossus to the anti republican party. Without numbers he is an host within himself. They have got themselves into a defile where they might be finished but too much security on the republican part will give time to his talents and indefatigableness to extricate them. We have had only middling performances to oppose to him. In truth when he comes forward there is nobody but yourself who can meet him. His adversaries having begun the attack he has the advantage of answering them and remains unanswered himself. For God's sake take up your pen and give a fundamental reply to Curtius and Camillas" - Thomas Jefferson to James Madison
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I've got 300 shares of GM right now and I'm still hoping for an eventual recovery in 18-36 months. I'm going to ride it out for now and and wait for a nice profit or a total loss when it GM goes under. I've got a few other stocks that are also going through their daily mood swings and keeping about 60% of my portfolio in cash with a 4.0% APR savings account.
Looking back if I'd been playing shorts "JUST RIGHT" I could've been up about 25% through shrewd buying and selling over the past week. I'm just betting on buying low now and in the next few years the market recovering.
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I bailed on my 401k today, reading outlooks and some very horrible news from people I highly repsect, I'm done with my current stock holdings. I just moved all my current stock based holdings in my 401k to bonds. Still buying 100% in stocks tho, might as well buy low there, but Im done with losing current value.
check out this read:
<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7363.html">http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7363.html</a><!-- m -->
It's a bit extreme, but The G-20 might reset the financial system, which in reality is probably what is needed. Any fractional reserve banking system can not be sustainable and will at some point require a reset. FDR did it in the 30s. Maybe it's time again. Time to buy some Perth Mint Gold! This is why I chuckle at people who say gold has no value. Tell that to gold holders in 1933 who doubled their wealth overnight, and the people in 1980 who had it when it went up to $2300 an ounce in 2008 dollars.
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Ok so now I just gotta find out where to buy gold bars 
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Breand Wrote:I bailed on my 401k today, reading outlooks and some very horrible news from people I highly repsect, I'm done with my current stock holdings. I just moved all my current stock based holdings in my 401k to bonds. Still buying 100% in stocks tho, might as well buy low there, but Im done with losing current value.
check out this read:
<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7363.html">http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7363.html</a><!-- m -->
It's a bit extreme, but The G-20 might reset the financial system, which in reality is probably what is needed. Any fractional reserve banking system can not be sustainable and will at some point require a reset. FDR did it in the 30s. Maybe it's time again. Time to buy some Perth Mint Gold! This is why I chuckle at people who say gold has no value. Tell that to gold holders in 1933 who doubled their wealth overnight, and the people in 1980 who had it when it went up to $2300 an ounce in 2008 dollars.
I think we should all sign off as we bail from the equity markets. Then we'll know when we've reached complete Purge capitulation.
I'm still in, but man is it tough to watch.
"Hamilton is really a Colossus to the anti republican party. Without numbers he is an host within himself. They have got themselves into a defile where they might be finished but too much security on the republican part will give time to his talents and indefatigableness to extricate them. We have had only middling performances to oppose to him. In truth when he comes forward there is nobody but yourself who can meet him. His adversaries having begun the attack he has the advantage of answering them and remains unanswered himself. For God's sake take up your pen and give a fundamental reply to Curtius and Camillas" - Thomas Jefferson to James Madison
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Zephyrs Wrote:Ok so now I just gotta find out where to buy gold bars
<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.perthmint.com.au/">http://www.perthmint.com.au/</a><!-- m -->
best place in the world to buy gold. They store it for you free of charge and it's backed 100% by the Western Australian Government.
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2 very interesting videos that discuss the devaluation of the US dollar and the eventual collapse.
http://www.youtube.com/v/3RhnHo3RDfg&hl=en&fs=1
http://www.youtube.com/v/4n3g5lUgkWk&hl=en&fs=1
<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/3RhnHo3RDfg&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/3RhnHo3RDfg&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>
<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value=" http://www.youtube.com/v/4n3g5lUgkWk&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/4n3g5lUgkWk&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>
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I did not see the videos, but would that be something if the Mexican Peso is more than the American dollar lol.
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Dustie Wrote:Singularity Wrote:Don't feel bad, Dustie. I bought 15 shares of GM back when it was $4.40/share. Odds are that $70 is gone, baby, gone! =)
What brokerage do you use and how much commission do you pay?
<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="https://www.sharebuilder.com/sharebuilder/Default.aspx">https://www.sharebuilder.com/sharebuilder/Default.aspx</a><!-- m -->
$4/trade on automatic investments, $9.95/real time trade on stocks.
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Breand Wrote:I bailed on my 401k today It's tempting, but I've sold at the bottom before, and it sucks. Right now my 401k is down almost 50% on the year, though, and that sucks also...
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I'm in for the long haul. I aint bailing on a thing. I may lose my $70 investment in General Motors, but 15 shares down the toilet isn't going to break me.
I really believe we'll be booming again in a few years. My portfolio has been slammed, but i've kept on buying. I've even upped my 401k contributions starting in December.
I even bought that Best Buy stock I always wanted. 10 shares at a little over $20/each. Yes, it's going down in value currently, but i'll pick up 10 more shares if it goes to $15. If 4th quarter earnings are dismal and the stock plummets to $10 or below, i'll probably snag a lot more. A risk? Hell yeah. But i'm worth it! :wink:
I really believe that company will do well over the next few years. If i'm wrong, i'll take the loss and move on. If i'm right, then i'm getting in during the fire sale.
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Grieve Wrote:Breand Wrote:I bailed on my 401k today It's tempting, but I've sold at the bottom before, and it sucks. Right now my 401k is down almost 50% on the year, though, and that sucks also...
Yea Selling on the bottom is bad. And trying to pick bottoms is a fools game.
It doesn't matter with a 401k, but if you have standard investments, alot of people are locking in tax losses. Basiccly it means selling, taking the loss, and then reinvesting in something else. So you turn the money right back into the market, but you lock in the tax deductions.
Its one way to take a little advantage of the situation and pay less taxes.
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
"If you want to change the world, be that change."
--Gandhi
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